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NFL Football: 2006 NFC North Preview
By Dwayne Bryant

1. CHICAGO BEARS

Offense: The Bears run-first attack will once again be led by running backs Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. The duo shared carries last season and this season will most likely start the same way. Look for Benson to become the featured back at some point this season. The Bears didn’t use a high first-round pick on Benson just to have him share carries. The QB in this offense, whether it be Rex Grossman (most likely), Kyle Orton or Brian Griese, will again be just a caretaker thanks to a ball-control offense and a suffocating defense. Chicago has a young group of wide receivers to go with Muhsin Muhammad. Justin Gage, Mark Bradley and Bernard Berrian will challenge for the #2 WR spot. Chicago averaged just 256.3 yards and 16.3 points per game last season. Don’t expect much more in 2006.

Defense: Chicago’s unquestioned strength is their defense. This unit allowed only 12.6 points per game last season – tops in the league. Only CB Jerry Azumah (retired) and S Mike Green (trade) are gone from last year’s group. CB Ricky Manning was brought in via trade (Panthers) to fill the void left by Azumah’s absence. In 2005, the Bears D ranked second in yards allowed, tied for second in INTs, sixth in total takeaways and tied for eighth in sacks. The Bears do a great job of rushing the passer, led by ends Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye. DT Tommie Harris also returns to stuff the middle. MLB Brian Urlacher leads a talented LB corps. The secondary features Mike Brown, Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher. This group had 16 INTs and returned three of those for TDs last season.

Special Teams: This unit needs an upgrade. Kicker Robbie Gould connected on only 3 of 8 FG tries from outside 40 yards. The return teams left a lot to be desired as well. Speedy Bernard Berrian showed some promise and may give this unit a boost.

Prediction: The Bears, thanks to a suffocating defense and successful running game, should run away with this division again in 2006.

2. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Offense: New head coach Brad Childress will install his version of the West Coast offense. That suits QB Brad Johnson just fine. Johnson doesn’t have a strong arm, but he does have an accurate arm for those short-to-intermediate throws. Receivers Koren Robinson, Travis Taylor and Troy Williamson should thrive in this system. Look for TE Jermaine Wiggins to have another solid season as well. The key to this offense is whether RB Chester Taylor can carry the load. Taylor did well in spot situations while with the Ravens and will have the luxury of playing behind a solid offensive line led by guard Steve Hutchinson. Taylor, who is also a solid receiving threat, will also benefit from having FB Tony Richardson opening the running lanes for him. No Culpepper and no Moss, but this offense still has plenty of potential.

Defense: Like many others, Minnesota is switching to the ever-popular Cover 2 scheme. The switch should bode well for this unit. The Vikes have two speedy ends in Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James who can create all kinds of havoc. Look for rookie OLB Chad Greenway to start from the get-go and make an immediate impact. The strength of this unit looks to be the secondary, led by corners Fred Smoot and Antoine Winfield. This is a fast defense that should make a bunch of big plays this season. Normally, switching to a new scheme takes time before improvement is seen. In this case, however, Minnesota has the talent to make it work right from the beginning.

Special Teams: Mewelde Moore proved to be a solid punt returner, averaging 11.7 yards per return (third best in the league) and had one return TD. Koren Robinson ranked fifth in the league with a 26 yard average per kickoff return and also took one to the house. The Vikings upgraded this unit by adding kicker Ryan Longwell. Longwell has an 81.6 career FG percentage and should find the Metrodome a much easier place to kick than Lambeau Field.

Prediction: An improving defense, solid special teams play and an offense with much potential puts Minnesota second in the NFC North.

3. DETROIT LIONS

Offense: No offense is more intriguing than this one. The arrival of offensive guru Mike Martz as Detroit’s offensive coordinator provides plenty of optimism. The Lions offense features several former first-round draft picks, including Kevin Jones, Roy Williams, Mike Williams and Charles Rogers. One thing Martz has here that he didn’t have in St. Louis is big receivers. Williams, Williams and Rogers are all tall red zone targets. Two questions exist. First, can Jon Kitna or Josh McCown run this offense efficiently? And secondly, can this offensive line protect whoever is under center? I have my doubts about question one and even more doubts about question two.

Defense: The Lions are yet another team converting to the Cover 2 defense. New head coach Rod Marinelli is a defensive-minded coach who will look for improvement in this group. New defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson is known for being aggressive in blitzing and coverages. He’ll want to see more pressure from his front four than this group generated in 2005. First-round pick Ernie Sims teams up with Boss Bailey and Teddy Lehman to form the starting LB trio. This defense forced 31 turnovers and had 3 defensive TDs last season, so the talent is there. Expect to see the sack total rise. They’ll need to improve on the 127.5 rushing yards allowed per game in 2005.

Special Teams: Eddie Drummond will need to return to his 2004 form (4 return TDs). He was mediocre at best last season. Jason Hanson is a consistent kicker who should see his scoring chances increase in 2006.

Prediction: Detroit is a team on the rise and could be dangerous if the new offensive and defensive schemes are successful sooner rather than later. I look for a slow start, but a strong second half of the season for the Lions.

4. GREEN BAY PACKERS

Offense: Injuries absolutely decimated this group in 2005. The pack lost their #1 WR, Javon Walker, in the first game of the season. They lost his replacement (Robert Ferguson), too. They played their fourth and fifth-string RBs at various points in the season as well as their third-string TE. Brett Favre isn’t the QB he once was, but he’s also not as bad as he looked last season. Protecting Favre is a concern. Green Bay also needs a WR to step up and draw coverage away from him. With Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport injury prone, look for Samkon Gado to once again step up and take over the RB duties. With questions at literally every position, this unit may not fair much better than the injury-riddled 2005 version.

Defense: There are quite a few changes to this unit. Ryan Pickett takes over at tackle. First-round pick A.J. Hawk moves into a starting LB spot. CB Charles Woodson and S Marquand Manuel were brought in to upgrade the secondary. Another rookie, LB Abdul Hodge, could find his way into the starting lineup. The Pack have added some playmakers and still have book ends Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and Aaron Kampman to pressure opposing QBs. Improvement may come in 2006, but it usually takes some time when a lot of changes are involved. This group should gel in the second half of the season.

Special Teams: Nothing to write home about here. The Pack’s kickoff-return team ranked last in the league in 2006 and the punt-return unit was average at best. Kicker Ryan Longwell, the Packers’ all-time leading scorer, took the money and ran to division-rival Minnesota. They’re left with Cowboys cast-off Billy Cundiff or Colts 2005 sixth-round pick, Dave Rayner. Ouch.

Prediction: Favre’s last hurrah will not be a good one. A new coaching staff, questions aplenty on offense, too many changes on defense and the loss of a solid kicker will leave Green Bay at the bottom of this division once again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bears are the class of this division. Each of their division rivals must go through the transition associated with a new coaching staff. Chicago should be able to separate themselves from the pack early on, but look for Minnesota and Detroit to have solid second halves of the season.

Dwayne Bryant is the owner and sports handicapper of Bullseye Sports Handicapping Service. Dwayne has been handicapping since the mid-1980s. Online since 2000, Bullseye Sports provides sports picks, including NFL and college football picks, NBA & NCAA basketball picks, MLB baseball picks and NHL hockey picks. Please visit http://www.bullseye-sports.com for more information.

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